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2017 F1 Predictions

EOR1488

Well-Known Member
That was one of the funniest races I have watched in a long time. I know he wasn't gonna finish there but damn Magnussen sitting in third for a bit! Starting to wonder if Roman G is actually having break problems or just complaining cause he is in his own head every race it seems now. All those retirements and not two cars in the points for Haas is disappointing.

If Vettle loses this championship this race not getting 25 points and getting a good lead will be a huge reason. What a dumb move.

Hey guys did a Mclaren Honda finish a race?


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bajaxp

Baja Bobsled Team
Baku was super entertaining and one of the best races I have seen in a long time! Like most of us 'left coasters' I DVR the race so not to be bogged down by commercials. Thank goodness I added time to the end of the recording, or I would have missed the podium celebration and the entertaining post race finger pointing.

Vettel lost his mind and might have lost the championship if it comes down to just a few points at the end of the season. Stupid move. Personally, I think Lewis was playing games with the cars behind just prior to the re-start. It certainly looked like he 'brake checked' Seb, but in the end, it is the car behinds responsibility not to hit the car ahead. Vettel's post-race interview made him look silly and petty. I loved Steve Matchett's phrase 'red mist.' I am going to borrow that. Haha. IMO a 10 second penalty was fine, given the circumstances.

I think Ocon is a quick kid, but he had an attack of 'stupidity' by taking out his teammate. Really stupid. The boy needs to learn how to cleanly pass his teammate if he is in fact faster. So far he has whined and moaned about Perez not 'letting him by' or has simply crashed his teammate out of a potential first win for himself and the team. The kid needs to get a tattoo on the inside of his eyelids with the credo, 'Thou shall never take out your teammate...EVER!'

I agree with what you guys have said regarding Romaine Grojean. He needs to drive around the brake issues just like Magnussen is doing. Is Kev Mag now the team leader at Haas?

I was happy to see that Lance Stroll had made Jaques Villineuve absolutely choke on his moronic comments that he made about the 18 year old in Canada. Third place and almost second is a ton of points.

Max Verstappen does not look happy and four retirements in the last six races might make him jump ship. Yes he has a contract, but contracts are sort of 'nice things' but not always 100% binding in F1.

If Kimi retires...who might take his seat? Recardo, Alonso, Verstappen, Sainz, Perez, Ocon or...? Things that make you go Hmmmmm!

Alonso scored points and both McLaren's finished the race. Woot...woot!
 

Bricoop

Well-Known Member
Baku was super entertaining and one of the best races I have seen in a long time! Like most of us 'left coasters' I DVR the race so not to be bogged down by commercials. Thank goodness I added time to the end of the recording, or I would have missed the podium celebration and the entertaining post race finger pointing.

Vettel lost his mind and might have lost the championship if it comes down to just a few points at the end of the season. Stupid move. Personally, I think Lewis was playing games with the cars behind just prior to the re-start. It certainly looked like he 'brake checked' Seb, but in the end, it is the car behinds responsibility not to hit the car ahead. Vettel's post-race interview made him look silly and petty. I loved Steve Matchett's phrase 'red mist.' I am going to borrow that. Haha. IMO a 10 second penalty was fine, given the circumstances.

I think Ocon is a quick kid, but he had an attack of 'stupidity' by taking out his teammate. Really stupid. The boy needs to learn how to cleanly pass his teammate if he is in fact faster. So far he has whined and moaned about Perez not 'letting him by' or has simply crashed his teammate out of a potential first win for himself and the team. The kid needs to get a tattoo on the inside of his eyelids with the credo, 'Thou shall never take out your teammate...EVER!'

I agree with what you guys have said regarding Romaine Grojean. He needs to drive around the brake issues just like Magnussen is doing. Is Kev Mag now the team leader at Haas?

I was happy to see that Lance Stroll had made Jaques Villineuve absolutely choke on his moronic comments that he made about the 18 year old in Canada. Third place and almost second is a ton of points.

Max Verstappen does not look happy and four retirements in the last six races might make him jump ship. Yes he has a contract, but contracts are sort of 'nice things' but not always 100% binding in F1.

If Kimi retires...who might take his seat? Recardo, Alonso, Verstappen, Sainz, Perez, Ocon or...? Things that make you go Hmmmmm!

Alonso scored points and both McLaren's finished the race. Woot...woot!
Great Recap-A couple thoughts:
*Vettel-dumb move. Watching HAM and the rev meter he was playing games, It didn't appear he brake checked him, but he did speed up through the apex to immediately let off, which effectively is a brake check.
*Mag is #1 at HAAS it does appear
*Good for Lance, he's got more racer in him than I realized. Bummer for Massa, after the finish, with his arm around Lance's father you could see Massa say, "lets go see him." what a moment, glad to see the leaders of the sport come by and congratulate him on parc ferme.
*Bad luck for Kimi, he was doomed on lap 1...but I guess technically the winner and second place were at the back to start the race, though they didn't have permanent body damage like Kimi.
*Max, big time bummer for him. He has so many more DNFs than Dan...I wonder if its luck, driving styles, or both?
*Sauber Who fired their principal on Friday under unusual circumstances.
*Ferrari and Merc are in for a fight! Remember Vettel used an old engine in the race. RB said major changes are coming and they should be fighting for a win by the break...well, looks like they are ahead of themselves thanks to some great luck.
*Dan have me the impression like he was dumbfounded, almost like they didn't earn it. Well, he also had wins he earned ripped away from him. Glad to see that smile on top of the box.
 

freddy

Well-Known Member
Ricciardo's restarts after the safety car periods was a sight to behold. That's what won him the race in the end. I think they were four wide at one point coming in to the turn. Wished I would have dvr'ed this race also... definitely worth watching again, if only to really grasp what happened. :)


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Bricoop

Well-Known Member
After having a few days to digest the wild VET/HAM incident, I do believe HAM brake checked VET under caution.

Here's the telemetry from FIA, you'll see VET is reacting to HAM. HAM is on a steady decline into the corner, then out of the corner he gives it a little juice (Y-axis is speed, X-axis is time) and maintains his speed for approximately 1 second and immediately backs off of it. Notice Vettel seems to mimic Hamilton, but is about 1 second behind which is a reasonable reaction time.

upload_2017-6-29_14-32-23.png


Now, from HAM's on-board. Pay attention to the Tach, KPH, Throttle, and braking indicators, though I think the Tach etc is slightly ahead of the video, notice that the tach shows acceleration into the turn, but the official telemetry shows HAM plateau on the exit:

Entering the corner, all appears normal:
upload_2017-6-29_13-33-24.png


Then he decides to accelerate into the apex of the turn, fine, they are going slow, only 43mph.
upload_2017-6-29_13-34-12.png


Back on the brakes in the Apex.
upload_2017-6-29_13-35-7.png



Staying on the brakes in the exit of the turn
upload_2017-6-29_13-37-56.png



Still on the brakes
upload_2017-6-29_13-39-10.png


Coasting and is hit immediately after, notice how slow he is going just prior to the hit, about 32mph, is that a reasonable speed?:

upload_2017-6-29_13-41-5.png


One interesting thing is there is no brake lights. For anyone that has raced, you know when its time to go, its time to go, and you go at the first indication.
upload_2017-6-29_14-13-37.png


What I don't understand is it all happened in turn 15, not turn 16 (the final right hander). SC1 HAM went from the exit of 16. SC 2 Ham went in turn 19
upload_2017-6-29_14-27-43.png


Conclusion:
-Hamilton intentionally slowed exiting corner 15, reason unknown. Probably a combination of gamesmanship and making room to the pace car.
-Vettel should have avoided him, but given he almost got passed by Perez in a Force One on SC1, he appeared to be staying deliberately close.
-Vettel's action afterwards was inappropriate. I think no further penalties are warranted. If HAM doesn't have his headrest issue, I don't think anyone would be calling for additional sanctions. There was never any real danger to driver safety, but there certainly was danger to damaging the car.
Solution:
Need a faster pace car and better usage of VSC. If the pace car can't get out of the way of the way nor keep speeds high enough to keep heat in the tires, a new SC is needed.
Require a minimum speed of the leader.
Keep with allowing the leader to choose when to accelerate, but make it within a certain zone. This link shows how crazy of a game of cat and mouse it was. It got dangerous in the back of the field with the accordion effect. Sainz calls for rethink of "dangerous" Baku restarts
 

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bajaxp

Baja Bobsled Team
Violent agreement re: Ham vs Seb. Ham would have won the race if his head bolster wouldn't have dislodged, which has nothing to do with Seb. Seb acted like a 'tard' but I am a racer and I felt that he (Seb) was 'brake checked' and I would have been pissed as well.

As you said re Sainz...everything is magnified back in the back due to the accordion effect or as David Hobbs famously calls the 'concertina effect.' So the accel/decel rates 10 or so spots back must have been gnarley.

Ross Brawn had the best quote today which paraphrased, was 'emotions were running high and it happened. 'Passion and emotion are a part of F1.' It is over and let's move on.

The FIA is now 'investigating' the incident, which the stewards have already ruled on. The only just thing that they could do (IMO) would be to put a few 'bad boy points' against Seb's super license like they did to Sainz for what happened in Canada. Anything else and I would have to say that the 'Russians are meddling in the 2017 F1 race results.' My 2 pesos for what it is worth... -MP
 

Bricoop

Well-Known Member
Violent agreement re: Ham vs Seb. Ham would have won the race if his head bolster wouldn't have dislodged, which has nothing to do with Seb. Seb acted like a 'tard' but I am a racer and I felt that he (Seb) was 'brake checked' and I would have been pissed as well.

As you said re Sainz...everything is magnified back in the back due to the accordion effect or as David Hobbs famously calls the 'concertina effect.' So the accel/decel rates 10 or so spots back must have been gnarley.

Ross Brawn had the best quote today which paraphrased, was 'emotions were running high and it happened. 'Passion and emotion are a part of F1.' It is over and let's move on.

The FIA is now 'investigating' the incident, which the stewards have already ruled on. The only just thing that they could do (IMO) would be to put a few 'bad boy points' against Seb's super license like they did to Sainz for what happened in Canada. Anything else and I would have to say that the 'Russians are meddling in the 2017 F1 race results.' My 2 pesos for what it is worth... -MP
They gave him 3 points, He's currently at 9, the highest ever I believe. 2 will go away at Silverstone.
 

vegasloki

Well-Known Member
UK F1 press is speculating FIA may ban Vettel for a race or strip his Baku points in addition to the license points penalty. It's not unheard of for the FIA to hand down an additional penalty, it just doesn't happen a lot.
 

freddy

Well-Known Member
UK F1 press is speculating FIA may ban Vettel for a race or strip his Baku points in addition to the license points penalty. It's not unheard of for the FIA to hand down an additional penalty, it just doesn't happen a lot.
And the German press is suggesting that Vettel didn't get a tougher penalty to not influence the championship to much.


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bajaxp

Baja Bobsled Team
Bricoop, is your comment in response to vegasloki or Freddy?

IMO...it would be suicide for F1 if the FIA docked Vettel his Baku points and banned him for a race. Ten second penalty and three points against his super license should suffice for what was basically a very low speed first offense. The Sainz incident in Canada was way more dangerous and gnarly than what happened in Baku. Chit...give him five points against his super license. I think Seb will get the picture and learn his lesson. Personally I hate penalties and I want to see races and championships won on the race track, not in some back office in France.

On another subject, Seb and Kimi use to be pretty cool customers prior to joining Ferrari this go around. But lately Seb has turned into an impetuous baby and Kimi (based on his radio chatter) is no longer the 'Ice Man.' So my hypothesis is that there has to be an un-Godly amount of pressure to win at Ferrari, well beyond their own self motivation and on top of the pressure cooker environment that is F1.
 

Bricoop

Well-Known Member
I think anything additional is a huge mistake. I love the emotion and passion we're seeing from drivers, don't stifle it. Plus it sets a precedent that a driver never really knows what the final penalty is going to be. Feels like they are reacting to fans/HAM, rather than the actual action and consequence.

The difference between Seb and Carlos was intent, but definitely see what you're saying. There's certainly been other times that drivers have been intentionally forced off while at race speed.
 

freddy

Well-Known Member
I agree that adding anything to Vettel's penalty now would be stupid by the FIA. If the penalty was the correct one I'm a little more doubtful about. Even though it hurts to say it, I think they could have easily given him a black flag during the race. Wasn't it in 97 that Schumacher was expelled from the records after hitting Villeneuve, albeit during different circumstances, race speed and all. With all said and done I think Seb should be really grateful he came out of the Baku GP with more points than Hamilton. I am too... ;-)


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bajaxp

Baja Bobsled Team
Will Seb have his tail between his legs this weekend? Do you think Lewis will keep popping off about losing respect for the FIA due to their 'no more action' comment? Predictions for the race? Who will be the 'best of the rest' this weekend (beyond the top three teams)? I am thinking Force India, since it is such a fast track but the tension in that team must be pretty high. Will Grojean rebound?
 

freddy

Well-Known Member
I think that Ham will try to bring it up in any way that he can, and that Seb acts like nothing happened. Probably with orders from Arrivabene to do so. I heard some of the penalty was that he couldn't be used in any FIA safe driving promotions, thank you very much was Sebs response. :)
Between Ferrari and Mercedes I don't know anymore, it's a toss on who's on form this weekend. I think/hope Red Bull can improve from now on also. Probably force India (one) for fourth if they can keep from bumping into each other. In other news, Kubica is confirmed for another test with Renault. He says 80-90% certainty for a comeback to the GP grid.


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Bricoop

Well-Known Member
I just finished up watching the press conference, seems that its in the past and HAM didn't push the issue.
I think we'll see a RB on the podium then Force One followed by Williams in the best of the rest.
Can't wait for Kubica to have another test. Apparently he now has enough movement in his arm that he can perform full lock turns. They use a modified wheel so he can upshift and downshift with the same hand.
 

bajaxp

Baja Bobsled Team
I wonder how old Kubica is now? 29-ish? The other question is whether Max will finish this race. He has DNFed 4 out of the last 6 races and doesn't appear happy. Riccardo posted a funny video of them flying to the race. Max was sporting a 'mustache' which looked very much like a dirty lip.
 
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