high priced covid prices for toys - are they thizzling out?

[turbodon]

Just wondering if everyone's seeing covid prices thizzling out?

While inflation has been high as of late, and the price of literally everything is on the rise.... are the high "covid" prices thizzling out in the toy market?

I tended to believe that the vast majority of people spending the large on their boats, remodels, motorhomes, offroad toys were banking on low interest rates, and cash out refi's from their houses that were crazy up in value...

Now that nobody can touch the equity in their houses due to the massive interest rate rate hike, and the "free" covid dollars thinning out, is the price of trucks, buggies, toys, boats actually coming down?

I feel like big ticket cars are just sitting stagnant and not moving. However, TT's 6100's, and the like still seem to be doing OK as the buyers in that market tend to be on another level and not soo much effected by the day to day market dollar (the wealthy are still wealthy, maybe even more so)

Just curious on thoughts.
I sold my racecar last year and got good money for it, but deeply regret it.
As I gear up to attempt another build, it's so painful to see what "parts" cost now. I look at my Kartek and Mckenzies receipts from 2-3 years ago and it's like parts are 20-50% more than what they used to be.... Dangit!! Cmon a can of spray paint is 30 dollars!!

So what do you think, where are prices headed?

 

[Baja4Autism]

My guess is those prices are here to stay. Why? Perfect example of the basic principles of supply and demand. Companies who were forced to raise their prices due to supply shortages now know that consumers are willing to pay higher prices to get what they want.

 

[Robin Hood]

Boats and RZRs yes....everything else inflation is propping up and I don't see any change coming anytime soon. More than likely we are in for some more suprizes.

 

[JDDurfey]

I believe prices are about to start crashing. Every dealer tracks how long their inventory is on their lot. I saw a video the other day from a RV Vlogger and he said that the length of time an RV is on a dealers lot has doubled since January. That speaks volumes to me.

And according to John Clay Wolfe from Give Me the VIN the prices on used cars is about to crash. He thinks this month will be the last month of the inflated prices.

As people spend more income to exist, like gas, utilities, and food they don't have money for toys or new rides. If the toys aren't selling they will come down. When inflation went through the roof in the 80's lumber prices crashed because no one was building houses because they couldn't afford the interest rates. I know a guy that had cash in hand and built his house for a fraction of the price of what it should have cost, because he didn't have to use a bank and lumber was cheap.

 

[bajaherbie]

John Clay Wolfes radio show is awesome to say the least! It is on several radio markets on Saturday mornings.

 

[Itsnick]

Who knows? Conventional wisdom has been thrown out the window.

 

[nimrod]

We all need a little Jimmy Carter at least once in our life to help us be grateful for the other clowns.

 

[jon coleman]

cash will be king this fall, we Are in a recession, fact, an '08 level one at least, its just the banks wont get bailed, because they dont need it this go around, i would just be patient, smokin deals on toys ,& toy parts will flood the market, yes, remember those 2 year out king race shocks?,they will be availiable right away for cheeep when d00d needs to make a mortgage payment

 

[Itsnick]

We all need a little Jimmy Carter at least once in our life to help us be grateful for the other clowns.

We had it once already.

 

[johnnyweb]

All I can tell you is I am not buying!

 

[43mod]

Looked at 3 skip loaders near home in kali . 20 years old $30k ish . Bought one outside Dallas one model newer $16500 .

 

[NIKAL]

Not sure I believe that the used car market will be coming down soon. As long as new cars are unavailable, causing demand. Then add the higher interest rates on the ones available. There will be a demand for used cars. Luxury items like RV’s, trailers, boats ATV’s ect.. I agree those will come down as those are discretionary spending items, and in most cases are financed.

 

[Klaus]

My theory is that things that are essential are up and will keep going up and things that are more luxury will be discounted soon. Cash is king as always.

 

[Robin Hood]

My theory is that things that are essential are up and will keep going up and things that are more luxury will be discounted soon. Cash is king as always.

Cash has not been King the last two years. Hard tangible assets have way out performed.

 

[Klaus]

Cash has not been King the last two years. Hard tangible assets have way out performed.

Good point and I agree. What I meant to say was in comparison to credit when the cost of renting money is high that actually paying in cash gets you better deals.

Tangible low depleting goods or ideally assets (things that generate) is a good position to be in.

Capital in asset classes beyond money is often underrated or flat out ignored.

 

[jon coleman]

i LOVE the rationale from the banks raising credit card interest% rates, classic mumbojumbo gobbledegook, one side of fed mouth says inflation?, naaa, other side of mouth!!! must raise rate to head off inflation!!!, so wtf is it, yes or no on massive inflation???

 

[Robin Hood]

Good point and I agree. What I meant to say was in comparison to credit when the cost of renting money is high that actually paying in cash gets you better deals.

Tangible low depleting goods or ideally assets (things that generate) is a good position to be in.

Capital in asset classes beyond money is often underrated or flat out ignored.

Yea, but relatively speaking interest rates are still really low and inflation is out pacing the interest rate hikes.

Hard money and Credit cards are where you will get hurt with rising rates. Credit card debt is increasing and with food and gas inflation the average worker living paycheck to paycheck is getting crushed. The toys they bought the last couple of years will flood the market thru hardship sales and defaults on loans. However, with high employment, I still think there will be absorption, just back at more rational prices that those with cash (or available credit) think are reasonable.

 

[jon coleman]

employment is high for certain reasons, metrics that please this current regime( remember the obama era job counting metric?, i do, nothings changed

 

[Argentino]

It's already begun. Soon people will be offloading all the crap they bought with the equity in their homes.

Something strange is that the bank isn't foreclosing so either there is going to be a clean sweep or something fringe is in the works. I'm guessing a combination of both.

My suspicions are that the bank is going to offer a stay but the homeowner loses the house to the security holder and their name comes off the deed. This system, overtime, would ensure a monopoly.

When I call places to make large orders, they're all happy to discount their inventory. Even at the nursery this morning, buying plants. It's in your best interest to start asking for, "the good guy discount" no matter what you're buying.


(Employment is high because they are lying. Nobody wants to work. People are lazier than ever. The numbers are false.)

 

[jon coleman]

at least this ressesion i dont have a race program sitting around un funded, ( i sold it all , except my dirt bike, gotta ride once a year irregardless nonetheless