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Mint 400 Picks --> Put your money where you mouth is..

trophygoat

Well-Known Member
I predict the podium will be the order of the top 3 qualifiers

Lofton
Andy
Menzies

Menzies needs that home town win. Same with BJ
 

biffgnar

Well-Known Member
How do you read the odds? +1000 means 10/1?
Exactly, odds are quoted relative to a 100 bet. So +1000 would mean you bet 100 to win 1000. Or in different contexts you will see minus numbers. So say it was -200. That would mean you bet 200 to win 100.

Nice, photoshop Fish. If it were real and the odds did shift like that could you hedge the bet by shorting him at 10-1? Cuts into the payoff if he wins, but I think could make it no loss.
 
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fishd00d

What A Joke
Exactly, odds are quoted relative to a 100 bet. So +1000 would mean you bet 100 to win 1000. Or in different contexts you will see minus numbers. So say it was -200. That would mean you bet 200 to win 100.

Nice, photoshop Fish. If it were real and the odds did shift like that could you hedge the bet by shorting him at 10-1? Cuts into the payoff if he wins, but I think could make it no loss.
Yes I believe you could do that. However the odds do drop based on the amount bet so when you hedge it it would change that and they might change again so not sure what you would be risking/making.
 

biffgnar

Well-Known Member
Yes I believe you could do that. However the odds do drop based on the amount bet so when you hedge it it would change that and they might change again so not sure what you would be risking/making.
Subsequent changes in the odds wouldn't change anything. Once you place the bet the odds you have on your ticket are what you get paid regardless of what the final odds are. Stuff like this isn't like horse racing where you have to wait to see final peri mutuel pay out.
 

fishd00d

What A Joke
Subsequent changes in the odds wouldn't change anything. Once you place the bet the odds you have on your ticket are what you get paid regardless of what the final odds are. Stuff like this isn't like horse racing where you have to wait to see final peri mutuel pay out.
Wouldn't you have to hedge with all of the other drivers that could win though?
 

biffgnar

Well-Known Member
Wouldn't you have to hedge with all of the other drivers that could win though?
I don't think so. If I'm long at 25-1 and short at 1-10 then I think all that matters is his result. If he loses I lose 1 on the long bet and win 1 on the short bet. If he wins I win 25 on the long bet and lose 10 on the short bet for a net of 15. So, you aren't guaranteed a win, but you have no loss if somebody else in the field wins.

Another way to bet would be to be long a single driver and long "the field" (this type of bet is out there in things like golf tournaments I think). You'd be guaranteed a winning ticket then but depending on the odds of each I think you could have some screwy outcomes there.
 

biffgnar

Well-Known Member
This is unhedgeable risk for the book. As bets come in they just get shorter. Only thing they really can do is tighten the odds.

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